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Zero net migration would shrink UK economy by 3.6%, says thinktank

todayFebruary 4, 2026 1

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Jump of £37bn in budget deficit by 2040 would force government to increase taxes, NIESR predicts

The UK economy would be 3.6% smaller by 2040 if net migration fell to zero, forcing the government to raise taxes to combat a much bigger budget deficit, a thinktank has predicted.

The National Institute of Economic and Social Research (NIESR) said falling birthrates in the UK and a sharp decrease in net migration last year had led it to consider what would happen if this trend continued to the end of the decade.

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Source: www.theguardian.com

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Written by: truelightfm

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